Despite this rebound, remittances in 2026 would be 1.44% below the 2024 record, meaning a full recovery from the 2025 decline would not be observed. For 2026, an annual rebound of 2.7% is estimated, but this would imply a moderation of Donald Trump's aggressive migratory stance. In October, remittances totaled $5.635 billion. Amid a peso that has appreciated sustainably—6.5% annually in October and 9.5% in November—the report "expects this to continue affecting the growth of remittances' purchasing power." Remittances fell by more than 2% in September, but the decline is slowing. The expectation is that November and December will again show real-term declines, and this loss of purchasing power will hit consumption, as remittances are equivalent to 5% of national spending. The number of transactions fell again, down 5.4% annually in October, consistent with the downward trend seen all year. Analysts attribute this drop in transactions to an increasingly adverse environment for migrants and a U.S. labor market that has lost momentum. "For 2026, it is estimated that remittances, measured in dollars, will show an annual rebound of 2.7%, but this would imply a moderation of Donald Trump's aggressive migratory stance, curbing the deterioration observed in remittances in 2025," Banco Base forecasts. Although it implies a recovery from September, it marks seven consecutive months of annual decline (-1.7%) and left the January-October total at $51.344 billion, 5.1% less than a year ago. Analysts predict a slight rebound for 2026 that does not make up for this year's losses. Remittances are ending the year with little strength, with fewer transfers, less impact on consumption, and a outlook marked by a slowdown in employment in the United States and a peso that is too strong for households dependent on these dollars. "Towards the end of the year, among the key factors and risks for the remittances dynamic, the cooling of the U.S. labor market, adverse conditions for immigrants (migration raids), and the political-economic environment in the U.S. stand out, which has already been reflected in a lower number of transactions," warns an analysis from Monex. Banco Base's economic analysis team sees an additional risk that depends not only on how many dollars are sent but also on their purchasing power. The flow over the last twelve months also fell to $62 billion, marking five consecutive months of decline. According to the Bank of Mexico, most of these resources continued to arrive via electronic transfers, which accounted for 99.1% of the total.
