In September, there was no monthly variation, but it grew 2.1% annually, driven mainly by national services, which advanced 1.3%, while the consumption of goods fell by 0.3%. The most dynamic component was again that of imported goods, which increased 9.1% annually and accumulated four consecutive months of growth. Even so, between January and September, private consumption barely advanced 0.14%, the lowest performance for a similar period since 2020. Most of the adjustment was again in construction, which fell 2.6% monthly and 10.2% annually, mainly explained by non-residential construction, which plummeted 16.4%. Investment and private consumption, which together explain about 80% of Mexican GDP, again showed signs of weakness in September. The results confirm that the two main engines of the economy continue to lose strength in a year that will end with growth of less than 1%. In the case of investment, the monthly decline was combined with an annual drop of 8.4%, with thirteen consecutive months in negative territory. Machinery and equipment showed a monthly respite of 1.9%, but still fell 6.1% annually. Investment fell 0.3% and consumption stagnated compared to the previous month, according to INEGI. "Historically, annual drops greater than 8.3% have not been observed outside of recession periods," explained Gabriela Siller, an economist at Banco Base, and emphasized that the current decline "reflects the negative impact of uncertainty due to the constitutional reforms approved in 2024, in particular the elimination of autonomous bodies and changes to the Judiciary, as well as Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy and doubts about the future of USMCA, in addition to lower public spending on infrastructure, which has accumulated a real fall of 29.1% in the first ten months of the year." In the case of consumption, the behavior was more stable, but without clear signs of a rebound. According to Siller, these results "suggest greater caution on the part of consumers" in a context marked by a weakening labor market and a lower flow of remittances.
