The Mexican peso advances amid geopolitical tension, breaking the $17.50 barrier per dollar. This trend is observed in the dollar's weakness throughout last year compared to other global currencies, reflecting trade uncertainty, the increase in U.S. debt, and doubts about its long-term sustainability, as well as constant attacks on the autonomy of the Federal Reserve. 'In the first days of 2026, the dollar had recorded a slight trend of appreciation, however, this reversed in recent days due to the escalation of trade and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. leader and world leaders,' the analysis explains. Regarding interest rates, Banamex states that the market expectation is that the central bank led by Victoria RodrÃguez will maintain an interest rate close to 7% this year and even an increase in 2027, which will maintain a higher differential compared to rates in the United States and other economies. The tensions that Trump has caused globally and the pressures that Banxico faces create the scenario for the Mexican currency to continue gaining ground against the dollar in the medium term, according to a Banamex analysis. The financial institution projects that the exchange rate will remain this and next year in the area of 18 units per dollar, a downward adjustment from forecasts that considered a scenario close to 19 units. In its text 'the super peso is back', Banamex analysts pointed out that the Mexican currency continues its upward trend at the beginning of this year, even placing in these sessions below the 17.5 unit barrier and so far this month it has already accumulated an appreciation of 3.1%. According to these adjustments, the exchange rate will close this year at 18.36 pesos per dollar while next year it will be around 18.73 pesos. For the analysts, there are two reasons that explain these strengths: a greater appetite for risk in international markets amid the tensions generated by the commercial and protectionist policies of Donald Trump; and on the other hand, the expectation that Banxico will have less room to cut interest rates, which will maintain an attractive differential for investors. The first point is related to a shift in investor portfolios, which in recent months have sought currencies of emerging economies such as the Brazilian, South African, and Mexican.
