The credibility of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is under fire. Although specialists are increasingly questioning its projections, indicators such as the peso and medium-term expectations reveal that the central bank still has market support. While Victoria Rodríguez's team claims it will reduce inflation to 3% this year, specialists say there are no conditions to achieve the target. "And we have to say it, there is an element of misogyny about this." The problem of not meeting the target is not unique to this board; it has been faced in the past by Guillermo Ortiz, Agustín Carstens, Alejandro Díaz de León, and now Rodríguez Ceja. In Oviedo's opinion, the problem for Banxico is rooted in the structure of the National Consumer Price Index (INPC). "Banxico has to aim for 3%," said the analyst based in Brazil. Although banks' estimates do not agree on inflation falling, in fact, the expectation for 2028 is around 3.7%, it should be noted that this expectation remains within the variability range of plus/minus 1 percentage point on the 3% set by Banxico. Oviedo also highlighted that without these pressures, the core inflation component would have fallen to 3% annual rates due to the economic slowdown. There are other factors that will create "bumps" in inflation throughout the year: the IEPS tax on sugary drinks and tobacco, tariffs on China, as well as the effects of the World Cup on airfares and hotel rates. Amid these criticisms, Banxico will return to session, and its decision will be announced at noon on Thursday. Analyst Gabriel Casillas believes there may be changes: "I anticipate that regardless of how significant the adjustments to the projections are, the convergence to the 3% inflation target will be postponed." Oviedo disagreed with this prediction: "It is worse to move the forecasts, there you can damage credibility. Not as much as losing credibility," Oviedo defended.
