The analysis indicates that budgeted debt service, expiring support instruments, and the uncertain benefits of restructure imply additional government assistance, limiting fiscal consolidation despite extended debt maturities. Despite the stagnation, Mexico met the deficit reduction target of 4.3% for 2025. For the rating agency, the country's credit rating will depend on greater clarity regarding support for Pemex and the pace of fiscal consolidation in the preliminary 2027 budget, to be presented in April. In addition to the pressure exerted by Pemex, the weak growth of the economy in an environment where private investment has not yet reactivated and an uncertain outlook on trade relations with the United States is also noted. The deficit reached by the Mexican government at the end of 2025 at 4.3% raised alarms for Moody's, as it was below estimates mainly due to the continuous support for Pemex, and now a weaker economic growth is a concern. 'Despite the progress in the review of the USMCA, the uncertainty about the future trade framework could persist beyond July, prolonging the weakness of investment and complicating growth and fiscal prospects,' it said. 'The continued support for Pemex and the lower growth could delay fiscal consolidation, increase debt indicators, and exert more pressure on the sovereign credit profile,' the rating agency said in an analysis published this Thursday. The agency noted that the support for the Mexican oil company has meant restrictions for the flexibility of spending, in addition, it warns that, despite efforts, they will continue to be necessary since it maintains operational losses and negative free cash flow.
