In an environment of economic weakness and the support that the market estimates will continue to require from Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), analysts discount that the Mexican government will achieve fiscal consolidation in the coming years, putting the country's credit rating at risk. According to the latest monthly survey conducted by the IMEF, participants project a deficit of 3.8% for this and the next year. While this is considered a way to reduce the deficit, it is also noted that for the government, «it is very difficult to leave behind the ideology of supposed energy sovereignty». Furthermore, although Pemex returned to the Mexican stock market with a successful operation by placing 31.5 billion pesos, as reported by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) last Friday and confirmed today by the BMV, this measure is «only a small fraction» of the maturities the oil company will face this and next year. However, Herrera warned that this success shows that investors estimate that Mexico will continue to support Pemex indefinitely, despite the public intention of the agency led by Edgar Amador to cut support for the next year. «To have stability in the rating and avoid risk, we would have to lower the deficit to below 3.5%, otherwise, there is a risk of a downgrade by one notch from two rating agencies that have Mexico at the second investment grade level,» said Víctor Herrera, president of the IMEF Studies Committee in a conference this Tuesday. The expert pointed out that the government's options are already limited, as to reduce the deficit in 2025 from 5.7% to 4.3% (without considering Pemex support, which would raise it to 4.8%), the investment budget was sacrificed. «We can't cut it anymore, we would have to go elsewhere,» he said. Amid the risk of sanctions for supporting Cuba, Pemex is seeking funds on the BMV. In contrast, he noted that there are areas where the Mexican government has not stopped spending, such as in refining. In its extended form, the RFSP, it is calculated at between 4.5% and 4.8% of GDP for the next two years, which exceeds the standards to keep the credit rating out of risk. «It is costing us dearly, representing half a percentage point of GDP, and if you add the P-Caps, it's already 1%,» said Herrera.
