Mexico Moves Away from Investment Growth Plans

Mexico is moving further away from its plans to increase the total investment-to-GDP ratio. The latest figures suggest this. The Mexico Plan, considered a cornerstone of industrial and regional development, has as its second goal, after positioning the country among the world's top 10 economies, "to raise the proportion of investment relative to GDP" above 25% from 2026 and above 28% by 2030. However, investment decreased from 24.4% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 22.9% of GDP in the same period of 2025. It was not even possible to maintain the investment-to-GDP ratio of the previous year. According to INEGI's quarterly global supply and demand indicators, in the fourth quarter of 2025 and with deseasonalized data, gross fixed capital formation, which measures investment in fixed assets, increased by 0.7% compared to the previous three months. But year-on-year, compared to the October-December 2024 period, it fell by 3.9% and accumulated five consecutive quarters of contraction, coinciding with the current administration's term. By type of component, private investment showed a reduction of 1.7% against the fourth quarter of 2024, but public investment recorded a drop of 15.3%. In the October-December 2025 period, 86% of investment in the country came from the private sector and 14% from the public sector. "Private investment is the main engine of capital formation, so strengthening legal certainty is fundamental" to prevent it from being discouraged, emphasized the economic observatory Mexico, how are we doing? Other data from the global supply and demand indicators confirm that, rather than contributing to economic growth, investment continues to subtract from GDP contribution. Year-on-year and based on original figures, GDP increased by 1.8% annually in the fourth quarter of 2025. Nevertheless, it accumulated a growth of only 0.6% in 2025 compared to the previous year. Gross fixed capital formation, which as indicated above is total investment, contracted by 3.7% annually in the fourth quarter and by 6.3% annually for all of 2025. Consequently, investment subtracted 0.9 percentage points from the 1.8% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, and more importantly, it took away 1.5 percentage points from the 0.6% growth in 2025. The Mexican economy slowed down significantly last year, from 1.4% in 2024, due to the contraction in productive investment, which robbed growth of its momentum. The main economic engine was the export of goods and services, which contributed 2.7 percentage points to GDP in 2025, but discounting the impact of imports, by 1.4 percentage points, the net contribution to growth was 1.2 percentage points. It was followed by private consumption, with 0.8 percentage points, while government consumption contributed only 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth that year. In this context, President Claudia Sheinbaum proposed to the Chamber of Deputies the issuance of a new Law for the Promotion of Investment in Strategic Infrastructure for Development with Well-being, in order to encourage the participation of the private and social sectors—through mixed investments—in strategic infrastructure projects. This law, according to the corresponding initiative, seeks "to provide certainty and clarity in the regulation of investment scheme mechanisms that serve to promote the development and execution of infrastructure projects," seems to be the last chance to get the private investment engine running and then give it enough speed. The law on investment in infrastructure, which is accompanied by a reform to the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law, aims to strengthen investor confidence, reinforce a state of law that gives legal certainty and guarantees clear rules, as well as to improve the business climate. The complement, no less important, is to guarantee the efficient supply of electricity, water, and gas. Will it be possible?