The United States could become the supplier of oil and gas for countries and sectors that need them, paying a 'war premium' that would benefit American companies. In the coming weeks, possibly months, let's hope not years, there will be a shortage of oil and gas worldwide, which will have a global impact, including on Mexico, which should have benefited from this global energy crisis. In a comment that surprised both enemies and allies, it was stated that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for oil tankers is no longer the responsibility of its government, but of the countries that benefit from the traffic through the strait. Who will tell northerners that they will pay more for their electricity this summer due to the war in Iran? This crisis comes at a time when the Mexican peso has shown a moderate but significant depreciation against the dollar. Other countries are calling for less use of air conditioning and other strategies to reduce electricity consumption, which requires gas. The government of Mexico, so far, has not presented any counter-cyclical strategy, with the exception of using the IEPS subsidy as a mechanism to keep the price of gasoline at a maximum of 24 pesos and diesel at 28 pesos, which does not solve the problem and is unviable. Additionally, remittances have fallen, which continue to be one of the financial pillars for millions of Mexican households. Moreover, it does not recognize the impact of the global oil shortage. The most urgent crisis in the short term is the possible shortage of fertilizers, right at the beginning of the agricultural cycle. But food prices will skyrocket along with inflation. The shortage affects not only the price of gasoline and oil, but also the gas needed to generate electricity and supply the tanks of companies and homes. The crisis to come is strong, and the governability of the country depends on you. In recent months, remittances have fallen between 0.5% and 1.4% annually in dollars, and the blow is much more severe when measured in pesos: the appreciation of the exchange rate has reduced its real value by up to almost 19%. Madam President, anticipate the blow, set priorities, set aside politicking and call for national unity. Without helium, superconducting magnets shut down and equipment goes out of service. Many countries are already implementing anti-cyclical strategies, including anticipating online work and study, recognizing the shortage and the increase in cost. Lower yields imply higher food prices. More heat, more electricity use. In the same year that the future of USMCA is being negotiated, in addition to the celebration of the FIFA World Cup 2026, there are also midterm elections in the United States and a shaky global economy amid Trump's tariff war. But it is the impact of the war in Iran that will force the president to change the government's priorities: More than seeking growth for the coming years, the priority of her six-year term must now be the governability of a country in crisis. A month after the war in Iran began, this week President Donald Trump assured in a national broadcast that the military objectives would be fulfilled in two to three weeks. Food inflation is the type of inflation that hits the population the most. Mexico already has a crisis in the health sector, now it would be necessary to anticipate the impact of the war in Iran, which could include shortages of medications such as paracetamol, and the lack of liquid helium, essential for MRI equipment to function. The war of Israel and the United States against Iran could not have happened at a worse time for the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, and the future of Mexico. The lack of fertilizers not only translates into higher food prices, but also protests from the countryside. A prolonged interruption can translate into delays in cancer diagnoses, neurological diseases, and emergencies. But a gas shortage translates into an increase in the cost of the electricity supply and the impact on the industrial sector affecting the country's inflation. But there is also the 'El Niño' forecast: higher-than-normal temperatures, more severe droughts in the north and center of the country, and intense and disordered rains in the south and southeast. Less fertilizer implies lower yields.
