Mexico's secret weapon in negotiating with Donald Trump over the USMCA review is its real economic relevance to the United States. Mexico is not only its main exporter but also its main buyer, showing the level of interdependence between the two economies. Mexico enters this process with a relatively favorable position, as goods qualifying under the USMCA retain preferential access to the US market. However, this does not eliminate uncertainty. Impacts can be seen in postponed investment decisions, greater caution in expansion plans, exchange rate volatility, and pressure on exporting sectors. Mexico's challenge remains internal: maintaining clear rules and advancing in infrastructure, energy, and digitalization so that the USMCA review becomes a factor for investment consolidation, not a rupture. The most sensitive sectors in the USMCA review are rules of origin, particularly in the automotive industry; labor enforcement; the agricultural sector due to glyphosate controversy; energy; and the use of inputs or investment linked to third countries, especially China. Mexico's true strength lies in its ability to provide certainty. We are still in an environment with uncertainty. The USMCA review can generate volatility, and a prolonged military escalation in the Middle East could pressure energy, inflation, and markets. Mexico's economic outlook for 2026 is moderate growth of 1.8%, supported by consumption, a gradual recovery in investment, a boost from the World Cup in tourism and services, and better performance in manufacturing linked to US demand. Inflation is expected to close at around 3.9%; formal employment should see gradual improvement to 2.1%; and the exchange rate is expected to be close to 18 pesos per dollar. The 2026 FIFA World Cup represents an opportunity as it can accelerate processes the country already needs. The first is the digitization of payments, especially in cities, businesses, and services that will receive more visitors. Increased tourism also raises the need to charge more quickly, securely, and conveniently. The second major financial opportunity for the World Cup lies in strengthening micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which can take advantage of this context to sell more, charge better, and advance their financial integration. Beyond the temporary boost to tourism and consumption, the greater value of the World Cup may be in the legacy it leaves: more digital payments, more businesses operating formally, and more tools for small businesses to integrate into the financial system. Citizens should be calm but also ready to seize opportunities that may arise. We do not see a generalized deterioration in the economy: there is growth, inflation should moderate, employment can continue to improve, and the exchange rate remains in a reasonable range. At the same time, there are external factors that can generate uncertainty, such as the USMCA review or the situation in the Middle East. Mexico has solid foundations, but the key will be to provide certainty, execute investments well, and continue to advance in productivity, inclusion, and digitalization.
