The Mexican economy will return to a more dynamic growth trajectory by 2026 and 2027, as the intensity of the shocks that affected economic performance in 2025 diminishes. Investment will be one of the main drivers of growth, and private consumption will continue to be supported by the sustained increase in real wages, the increase in employment associated with investment, and the foundation provided by the welfare programs. Similarly, a favorable performance of exports is expected in a context where Mexico maintains a more favorable effective tariff rate than other competing countries. A tighter public finances environment is projected, with a 2 percent fall in budgetary revenues in 2027 compared to the approved amount for 2026, which will force a reduction in spending of 4.1 percent. It detailed that net budgetary spending is estimated at 10 trillion 23.9 billion pesos, a figure 91.0 billion pesos lower than the amount approved for 2026. Budgetary revenues are estimated at 8 trillion 831.9 billion pesos for 2027, an amount 110.8 billion pesos higher than projected for 2026. Oil revenues will show a reduction of 293.4 billion pesos compared to the amount approved for 2026, with a decline of 26.8 percent. It is forecast that the peso will remain strong, with a slight depreciation of 20 centavos, so it will end 2027 at 18.60 pesos per dollar, from 18.40 in 2026. It calculated that the interest rate on Cetes will continue to fall, from 6.3 percent at the end of 2026 to 5.5 percent at the end of the following year. The 2027 Pre-criteria raised the projection for the price of oil for the end of this year to 77.3 dollars per barrel, from 54.9 dollars approved in this year's Economic Package, and for the next year they calculate it at 54.7 dollars. On the other hand, it foresees a slight slowdown in the growth of the US economy to 2 percent in 2027, from 2.3 percent this year. More debt The Historical Balance of the Public Sector's Financial Requirements (SHRFSP) will be located at 20 trillion 419.8 billion pesos, equivalent to 54.7 percent of GDP at the end of 2026. For 2027, the figure will rise to 21 trillion 849 billion pesos, with 55 percent of GDP. In the next year, the fiscal normalization process will be maintained, with the objective of reducing the public deficit and preserving the sustainability of public finances. The Public Sector's Financial Requirements (RFSP) will be located at 3.5 percent of GDP in 2027, from 4.1 percent this year. This result will be consistent with a primary surplus of 1.1 percent of GDP the next year, from 0.5 percent of 2026. 'In 2027 the fiscal normalization process will continue, keeping public debt on a sustainable path in the medium term, without compromising the economy's growth potential,' the document stated. However, it anticipates a tighter budget, with a fall in revenues and public sector spending. In the General Pre-criteria of Economic Policy for 2027, sent by the Government to Congress, a contraction in spending is estimated due to the fall in oil revenues and the need to continue with fiscal consolidation. The Ministry of Finance recognized in the report that the Mexican economy will face next year an international environment with significant challenges. 'Sources of volatility persist associated with geopolitical conflicts, disruptions in global trade routes, and changes in US trade policy, in a context marked by the process of reviewing the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC),' it highlighted. The SHCP projects that GDP will advance in a range of 1.9 to 2.9 percent in 2027, from a projected advance for 2026 of between 1.8 and 2.8 percent. This behavior will obey mainly a lower average price of oil. Meanwhile, Government Federal revenues will grow by 372.1 billion pesos, driven mainly by tax revenues, which will increase by 347.7 billion pesos, to 6 trillion, 186 billion pesos. With this, tax collection will maintain a solid trajectory and will reach a level of 15.6 percent of GDP, in line with what is projected for 2026. Inflation at 3% The document trusts that inflation for the end of next year, will be located at the Bank of Mexico's target of 3 percent, from 3.7 percent in which it will end this year. The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) projects an economic growth of 2.4 percent for 2027, which would mean a slight improvement over the 2.3 percent projected for this year.
