The U.S. economy, our main external market, grew by 2.2% last year, despite slowing in the last quarter. Meanwhile, Mexico's economy had a smaller increase of 0.8% for the entire year. Even the tertiary sector, which had been maintaining growth, now shows a monthly decrease (-0.6%), where the decline in recreational, cultural, and sports services stands out (-8.5%), and even retail trade showed a decrease of 0.4%. In turn, private consumption in January of this year decreased by 1.6% compared to the immediate previous month. In this case, it should not be recorded as an investment, but rather as public spending. Another element affecting the Mexican economy is the increase in inflation and a possible change in its trend. If the entire oil balance of Mexico is taken into account, it was negative last year, when petroleum products were exported for 21,246 million dollars, while imports in the same period were more than double, that is, 46,797 million dollars. In turn, the underlying index of the consumer price index rose to 5.18% annually, which is much higher than the maximum target set by the Bank of Mexico itself of 3%. If the comparison is not made with respect to the previous month, but with the month of January 2025, that is, twelve months earlier, private consumption of national goods was -1.2%, while imported goods had a strong increase of 8.7%. This contrasts with what happened in previous six-year terms, when our economy was more dynamic than that of the United States. On the other hand, data published in recent weeks by INEGI shows the continued deterioration of Mexico's economy. It is concerning that private investment was reduced by 4.5% and public investment increased by 3.8%. In the coming days, the inflation data for the entire month will be known, which already includes the impact of the Middle East war, which affects different products such as oil, fertilizers, gas, and various plastics, as well as maritime and air transport and other services. Some analysts believe that the increase in the price of oil in international markets should benefit Mexico because we are exporters of this energy source. This gives a deficit in the oil balance of 25,552 million dollars for the entire year 2025, which has a negative effect on the country. The consumer price index in the first half of March grew by 4.46% compared to the same date of the previous year. However, it is possible that this last expenditure should not be recorded as an investment insofar as public projects are not profitable in the medium and long term. If this is added to the support that the Federal Government announced it will give to the price of gasoline for the public, the net impact on public finances would be negative. It is important to take into account what is happening in the rest of the world, in order to understand what is happening in our country. For example, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) had negative data in the past month of January compared to the immediate previous month (-0.9%). This is the result, in large part, of the appreciation of the exchange rate that makes products produced abroad cheaper. In turn, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, that is, investment, continued to decrease in January of the past month compared to the immediate previous month, that is, December of 2025, by 1.1%. A correct economic policy and the survival of many companies depend on this. Among them, the strong reduction of primary activities stands out (-3.7%); in turn, secondary activities also decreased (-1.1%). However, this is not entirely correct because our country is an importer of other petroleum derivatives such as gasoline, gas, and others.
