Mexico's fiscal consolidation is not creating space but redistributing pressure. The adjustment is disproportionately falling on public investment, which is crucial for long-term growth. This implies a cumulative contraction of public investment of approximately 10% between 2025 and 2027. The government announced a five-year, $325 billion infrastructure investment plan, but this rests on uncertain assumptions: a $77.3 oil price barrele and a GDP growth range of 1.8% to 2.8%, which the private consensus places lower (0.8% to 1.8%). For three consecutive years, the main instrument for public sector capital formation has been operating at a lower level. Mexican fiscal discipline remains a key macroeconomic anchor, but the mechanism enabling this combination has a cost not reflected in the balance sheet figures, but in the country's growth. Compressed public investment today means lower productive capacity tomorrow. The key question is whether this reflects a strengthening economy or merely postpones structural tensions for the future.
