The relevant question we must ask ourselves is where to channel that savings. Most of the portfolio of the Afores (Mexican pension funds) is concentrated in fixed and variable income, national and international. The largest financial asset in Mexico does not belong to the State. Without institutional certainty, no regulatory framework is sufficient for long-term capital to commit to productive projects in Mexico. Afores are the capital Mexico needs to grow. Without a well-structured project, no investment is possible, no matter how much capital is available. This forces Mexico to substitute Asian imports with domestic production, which opens up a real and immediate demand for investment in some of the sectors that require long-term capital, which generate predictable returns once mature, and that have the profile that Siefores (pension accounts) can and should demand. They are the retirement savings of millions of Mexican workers. Any expansion into alternative assets must meet one non-negotiable condition: real profitability, in the long-term horizon that the system allows and that no other investment vehicle in Mexico has structurally. Resources are set to get bigger by law and by demographics. Consar (National Commission for the Retirement Savings System) projects that the SAR can consolidate as the main financial intermediary in Mexico. In alternative assets, infrastructure, private capital, productive projects, the allocation barely reaches 8.7 percent. Afores, by definition, are the capital most willing to wait. They already have the size, they have the investment horizon, and they have the fiduciary mandate to maximize the return for workers. Afores should finance projects that produce, that compete, and that pay. Building that connection between the supply of savings and the demand for productive investment requires, at least, three simultaneous conditions. It is called the Retirement Savings System, it administers more than 8.4 trillion pesos and represents a little over 22 percent of the national GDP. First, a structured program of certifiable projects, packaged with institutional standards of transparency, corporate governance, and risk-return metrics that are auditable and comparable. Second, co-investment vehicles between development banks and private capital that function as catalysts, not as substitutes, distributing the risk of early-stage and enabling the entry of institutional capital under reasonable conditions. The negotiations point towards greater integration of North America. Third, and this is a fundamental condition: strengthen the justice system, legal certainty, and the rule of law. What is missing is an ecosystem of profitable projects, with clear rules and institutional backing, that converts that savings into the engine of a new productive cycle. The gap is not in the resources, it is in the architecture that should connect those resources with investment. We must begin to build the framework for one reason that goes beyond industrial policy: the resources of the Afores are not public capital nor speculative venture capital. They belong to the workers. Not as a favor to the country, but as the best possible investment for those who put that money there, one peso at a time, throughout their working life. Not because the returns are not competitive, but because the projects with the appropriate risk-return profile, corporate governance, and long-term horizon do not exist in the volume that the system demands. In 2025, worker contributions amounted to 800 billion pesos. However, the time span is a competitive advantage, not a license to assume risk without return. That said, the current situation in the USMCA negotiations offers a convergence of opportunities that would be a mistake not to take advantage of. First, a structured program of certifiable projects, packaged with institutional standards of transparency, corporate governance, and risk-return metrics that are auditable and comparable. The 2020 pension reform will gradually increase contributions from 6.15 percent to 15 percent of the contribution salary base by 2030, which will structurally accelerate the flow of resources to the Afores in the coming years.
