Mexico would face an additional budget deficit of 22 billion pesos if the Middle East conflict ends in May, as an economist projects. This deficit would result from subsidies on gasoline IEPS and agreements with gas station owners to prevent prices from rising above 24 pesos per liter. "It's not much, but it increases the pressure on already tight finances," the specialist noted. Despite this, experts at Banamex bank believe the conflict will be short-lived. They point to two key factors: electoral pressure on Donald Trump due to rising gasoline prices and his supposed behavioral pattern (TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out), which suggests a possibility of backing down. In the current climate, polls show a majority of Americans oppose the protracted war. Analysts believe that if the conflict lasts only a few weeks, it will not have a significant impact on the Mexican economy. "The government still has room to withstand the shock without inflation spiraling and without a significant impact on the Mexican economy," the economist emphasized. Banamex is maintaining its forecasts for economic growth at 1.6% and inflation at 4% for this year, which aligns with the assessments of Mexico's Ministry of Finance. In the event of a short-term resolution to the crisis, Brent crude oil prices are expected to normalize within a couple of months and average around $80 per barrel for the year.
