A recent report on the Mexican economy projects zero growth for this year and a decrease of -0.7% for 2025, contrary to initial estimates of 2.2% growth in 2023 and 1.5% in 2025. This analysis suggests that real growth could be even lower than expected, possibly averaging only half a percentage point in the years 2024-2025.
Economic activity projections are also being revised downward, with recent analyses showing a slight contraction in the third quarter that was not reflected in previous estimates. Even financial institutions like CitiBanamex are showing pessimism, forecasting a growth of 1% for Mexico in 2024. The data suggest that the current account deficit is contributing to the contraction of GDP, as neither consumption nor investment are growing at significant rates.
The IMF has published new estimates reflecting a significant economic contraction for Mexico, and the situation is expected to worsen in the coming months. Economic activity has been below expectations, with GDP growth much lower than the global Economic Activity Index since 2023. This indicates a possible growth of 0.5% in the third quarter, far from the optimistic expectations of specialists.
Possible reasons behind these concerning figures include an increase in the fiscal deficit, an unexpected rise in the "civil engineering works" sector, and unusual spending in areas like consumption. Analyses suggest that the bases on which fiscal adjustments are calculated are under pressure, which could further complicate the economic situation in the country.
