There has been significant concern among investors about Mexico's economic future, which was discussed at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. There is strong unease among both national and international investors regarding the reform of the judicial system in the country, which is crucial for the efficient operation of businesses in Mexico.
Although Mexico's main external market, the United States, continues to show high economic activity, the Mexican economy is currently experiencing low dynamism. The public deficit stands at around 6 percent of GDP, which could have negative repercussions on employment and the financial sector.
To prevent further economic deterioration, there is a need to increase private investment as a means to boost demand driven by both local and foreign resources. Various economic statistics reflect a clear slowdown in the Mexican economy at this time, with an increase in inflation.
It is expected that several financial and analytical institutions will lower their economic growth projections for Mexico in 2024. The lack of a sustainable business plan for the financial future of companies such as Pemex and CFE, along with the risk of price increases affecting other economic sectors, also generates concern.
The rising violence in different regions of the country is another worrying issue, as it negatively impacts the economy overall. The relationship between the Mexican public administration and the presidential candidates from the United States, as well as tensions with European countries like Spain, are additional causes for concern.
In summary, if corrective measures are not taken soon, there is a possibility of a recession next year, which is common during changes of government in Mexico. The uncertainty surrounding the policies of new public officials, their capacity and resources, as well as the implementation of public programs, contribute to this challenging economic scenario.
The slowdown of the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE) and manufacturing production is highlighted, with GDP growth in the second quarter potentially being even lower in the third quarter, according to INEGI.
