The arrival of Trump at the White House and the possibility of him controlling Congress could entail profound changes globally. The Economic Package for the year 2025 must consider specificities in light of these events. One of the novelties is that the new administration starts in October instead of December, which provides more time for budget preparation. Additionally, by keeping the same head of the Secretary of Finance in both administrations, the transition for drafting the new Package is facilitated.
Regarding the approval process of the Package, in previous administrations, it usually included a "pool" for negotiations with key legislators. Under President López Obrador, the approval often depended on his instruction. In exactly two weeks, the Secretary of Finance must send the Economic Package to Congress. This package is special for various reasons: it will reflect the policies and methods of allocating money from the government of Claudia Sheinbaum, generating great expectations in financial markets.
There is interest in seeing how the private sector's presence in infrastructure projects will be articulated, given the tight fiscal margin. Despite qualified majorities, there could be a complex approval process in Congress, where the "tribes" of Morena will seek advantages. Starting November 15, unprecedented events are expected in Mexico, with an ambitious project of works by Sheinbaum's government.
The Economic Package will include estimates of growth, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates for 2025, constructing scenarios of expenditures and revenues in a complex and difficult-to-predict environment. The election in the United States will also be a special factor, with the possibility of articulating sectors through projects such as the purchase of Iberdrola plants. We will see if there are schemes to boost public investment and enhance its reach.
