The possible departure of Marcelo Ebrard generates uncertainty about the direction of Mexico's commercial strategy and its stance towards the USMCA, which could affect the peso and sow doubts in the markets about the country's responsiveness. On the other hand, in terms of security, the figure of Omar García Harfuch is crucial for the current administration, and his eventual resignation could be interpreted as a weakness in managing this highly relevant area.
Regarding the sovereign rating and the budget deficit, the appropriate handling of the 2025 budget is vital to avoid a negative revision in Mexico's credit rating. Although García Harfuch's departure would not have a direct impact on financial markets, it could undermine the perception of security in the country, which in turn would influence foreign investment, an essential element for the Mexican economy.
In a new administration, the resignation of any key member would be considered a sign of instability, which investors tend to avoid. If Rogelio Ramírez de la O were to leave his position, it would be interpreted as a disagreement with the government's financial strategy, generating greater uncertainty and questions about the country's sovereign rating.
Marcelo Ebrard, in charge of the Economy Ministry, leads trade negotiations with the United States at a delicate moment, with potential tariff disputes on the horizon depending on the next president in Washington. Signs of tension and realignment in the Mexican institutional landscape have become evident with resignations in the Supreme Court, while the Ministry of Finance faces pressure from the IMF and other entities to carry out prudent fiscal consolidation.
In a scenario of tight budgets, fiscal uncertainty, and changes in trade relations with the United States, continuity in the cabinet is fundamental to maintain investor confidence. Presenting a balanced 2025 budget is one of the greatest challenges facing the administration, and the departure of any cabinet member could have significant consequences for the market and the international perception of the country.
