Hours before Rogelio Ramírez de la O delivers the Economic Package for 2025, the market is transitioning calmly. However, there are elements that generate surprise and concern, such as the exchange rate proposed by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, set at 18.50 pesos per dollar, below the market consensus which exceeds 20 pesos per dollar.
"The criterion for this quotation seems strange in an environment of volatility, especially after Donald Trump's victory in the presidency of the U.S.," market participants comment, suggesting that the estimate may have been made before these events.
Marcos Arias, Senior Economist at Deloitte, highlights that the current consensus does not consider the depreciations after the electoral outcome. A fiscal deficit of 4% and a growth of 2-3% for 2025 are projected, but upward adjustments in the exchange rate are expected, which could distance expectations between the Finance Ministry and the market.
In the presented document, an adjustment for the projections of this year is observed, with an exchange rate of 19.70 pesos per dollar, contrasting with the 17.60 pesos from April. Specialists foresee that the peso will continue losing ground and reach 20.20 pesos per dollar, although the government expects a slight appreciation for 2024.
The Finance Ministry acknowledges possible risks such as geopolitical tensions, adverse climatic events, and idiosyncratic factors. Gabriel Contreras, Chief Economist for Latin America at Barclays, points out that a higher exchange rate could generate more revenue for the treasury, being optimistic but aware of changing scenarios in the market.
