The federal executive presented the Economic Package for 2025 in both chambers of the Congress of the Union, being the first of the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum. The project is based on four essential pillars: social well-being with equity, strategic public investment, fiscal discipline with republican austerity, and simplification measures with greater operational efficiency.
One of the highlighted fiscal goals is the reduction of the budget deficit from 5% of GDP in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 to keep public debt at a sustainable level. The Secretary of Finance, Rogelio RamÃrez de la O, mentioned that this supports financial stability in the medium and long term.
It is projected that the Financial Requirements of the Public Sector will reach 5.9% of GDP by the end of 2024, decreasing to 3.9% in 2025, representing a significant effort for fiscal consolidation. These figures aim to preserve solid public finances and manageable debt.
The estimates surprised analysts who anticipated a higher public deficit. However, the reduction towards more stable and healthier metrics is considered at least less difficult than in previous years.
Regarding GDP growth, a range of between 2 and 3 percent is expected in 2025, supported by job strength and dynamism in the internal market. Economic growth forecasts vary among different financial institutions, although the government's proposal is more optimistic than most forecasts.
Among the priority programs for the upcoming year, the pension for the elderly stands out with a considerable budget. There is also a plan for the transfer of 136 billion pesos from the federal government for the payment of debts incurred by Pemex, subject to improvements in the company's balance.
A topic highlighted by Moody's was the possibility that Pemex's liabilities may be partially or totally absorbed by the government, which influenced the revision of Mexico's credit outlook.
