The first year of Claudia Sheinbaum's government will face lower economic dynamism compared to what was expected in 2024, but it is anticipated that she will manage to avoid falling into a recession, unlike what happened during the first year of Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration. According to Barclays, two key elements underpin this forecast: the continuity of Rogelio Ramírez de la O at the helm of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, and the absence of significant 'policy errors' in this first year of Sheinbaum's government.
Gabriel Casillas, chief economist at Barclays in Latin America, mentioned that his growth estimate for the coming year is skewed upwards, citing an improvement in manufacturing prospects. In this regard, Casillas stated: "We do not expect Sheinbaum to make the same policy mistake." Barclays' projection for GDP growth in 2025 is in line with market estimates but below the projection of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, which places growth between 1.5 and 2.5%.
Barclays also highlighted that it does not anticipate a significant slowdown in 2025, unlike similar situations in the past after government changes, due to the lack of coordination in government spending between the outgoing and incoming administrations. Casillas pointed out that, with Ramírez de la O's continuity at the Ministry of Finance, it is unlikely that episodes like the cancellation of the Mexico City airport during López Obrador's first year in office, or the change in the formula for social interest housing subsidies in 2013 under Peña Nieto's mandate, will be repeated.
