The National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (Conagua) is monitoring a low-pressure area in the Pacific Ocean over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which has increased its probability of cyclone development to 70%. This area is located southwest of Puerto Chiapas and is expected to move south towards the coasts of Guerrero. Furthermore, intense to torrential rain is expected in the northeast, east, and southeast of Mexico, with strong winds and elevated swell on the coasts of Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas.
As part of the cold season, it is forecasted that front No. 5 will remain stationary in northern Mexico and cause strong winds with dust storms in the northwest and north of the country. This will combine with the subtropical jet stream. Minimum temperatures for Monday morning are expected to be between 0 and -5 degrees in four states.
Regarding the rainfall for Monday, October 21, the SMN indicates that heavy to very heavy precipitation is expected in Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca. There will be intervals of showers with heavy localized rains in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Tabasco. Additionally, showers are expected in Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Tlaxcala, Morelos, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo, while isolated rains are expected in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, and Querétaro.
On the other hand, minimum temperatures of -5 to 0 degrees Celsius with frost are projected in mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Durango during the early hours of Monday. Furthermore, temperatures are expected to range between 0 and 5 °C in Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Oaxaca, and Veracruz.
