Today, Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the United States forces Mexico to be prepared to make quick decisions regarding possible consequences. Washington could implement protectionist measures that would affect trade policy, leading Mexico to adjust tariffs in response. Additionally, an imminent mass deportation of migrants is expected, which would put pressure on Mexican border cities.
The behavior of financial markets will be marked by uncertainty, primarily in the exchange rate, if Trump announces unexpected measures. Although the generalization of a 25% tariff on Mexican exports is ruled out, just the possibility of this measure can trigger speculation in the foreign exchange market globally.
The tone and decisions Trump adopts in his first days in office will be crucial for interpreting his intentions. The bilateral relationship with Mexico could be redefined under his administration, highlighting his stance of prioritizing American interests in trade, immigration, and security, especially in reinforcing the border with Mexico.
The comparison with the start of his administration in 2017 emphasizes his "America First" policy and his criticism of the political elite. It is expected that on this occasion, Trump will sign a larger number of executive orders from day one to materialize his campaign promises, which could include designating Mexican criminal groups as terrorist organizations, generating significant changes in the bilateral dynamic.
The speed with which this administration is expected to launch contrasts with the previous one, focusing on job recovery and strengthening the U.S. industry. Every action taken by Trump will be analyzed closely, as it will set the course for the coming years and may require an immediate review of economic and political projections for 2025. Today will mark a milestone that will define the future of the relationship between both countries.
