The presidential election in the United States is generating unrest in various areas, including the economy. Although the contest is still tight and anything can change, recent trends show a momentum in favor of Donald Trump. Despite official messages indicating a willingness to work with whoever is elected, the possibility of a victory for the current president poses complications for Mexico in economic and political terms.
The threats made by Trump, often seen as mere electoral rhetoric, have proven to be feasible in the past. His potential triumph is perceived as a risk to democracy in the U.S., global stability, and the relationship with Mexico. The 2016 election had a significant impact on the exchange rate of the Mexican peso against the dollar, and there is a possibility that a new Trump victory could lead to a similar depreciation, reflecting uncertainty in financial markets.
Beyond monetary issues, President Trump's ability to affect the successful economic model of North America is a cause for concern. The balance between internal and global interests is at stake, and American voters face a crucial decision. A shift in trends has been observed in recent days, according to various sources, showing an advance for Trump in voting intention and betting markets.
The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes/HarrisX, and CNBC agree that the advantage now lies with Trump, albeit narrowly. This surge for the Republican candidate, supported by electoral data and betting analysis, could lead him to surpass the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, highlighting advances in critical states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With less than two weeks to go until the election, uncertainty is palpable, and the risks associated with the results transcend borders.
