The Director of Economic Analysis at Moody's Analytics for Latin America, Alfredo Coutiño, warned that Mexico would be severely affected by tariffs imposed by the United States, with growth limited to 0.6% in 2025. This follows President Donald Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, two of its main trading partners.
According to Coutiño, these measures would result in a significant loss in Mexico's economic growth for the current year. Despite the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a growth of 1.4% for 2025, Moody's predicts a slowdown in Mexican foreign trade, both in exports and imports, and a negative impact on the relocation of supply chains in the country.
The analyst also mentioned that recent reforms in Mexico, such as those in the Judiciary and the disappearance of autonomous bodies, were already hindering the arrival of foreign companies in the country. Furthermore, tariffs are expected to generate inflation, a depreciation of the Mexican peso, and increased pressure on the national economy, which is already showing signs of slowing down.
Coutiño pointed out that the protectionist policy of the United States would affect investment flows resulting from the relocation of companies, not only from the U.S. but also from other parts of the world, especially Asia. Regarding the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Moody's believes that although trade tensions do not interrupt its planned review for 2026, they could generate pressures to force concessions from the partners.
On the other hand, Moody's Analytics projects that Latin America as a whole will face the year 2025 with greater resilience, forecasting a 2.1% increase in regional GDP.
