Around half a million families in Mexico face the risk of falling into poverty by the year 2025 due to mass deportations of immigrants from the United States. According to Ramón Martínez, an expert in Economics and Finance at the Escuela Bancaria y Comercial (EBC), the immigration and militarization actions at the border by the Trump administration will have immediate consequences.
Martínez explained that if the current U.S. president matches the deportation record set during Barack Obama’s administration, at least 400,000 Mexicans could be repatriated, which would result in a sharp cut in the remittances sent to their families in Mexico. This, in turn, would affect around 23% of the families receiving remittances in the country, totaling 1.8 million, putting them at risk of falling into poverty due to lack of income and employment.
On average, each family in Mexico receives about 395 dollars per month in remittances, equivalent to eight thousand 153 Mexican pesos, an amount that would be lost due to mass deportations. The entry of half a million families into poverty also represents additional pressure on public spending in Mexico, as the affected households comprise around two million people who will demand essential public services and social support.
According to Martínez, these pressures on public spending could result in an increase in the public deficit in the country, with possible impacts on economic growth. Additionally, if tariffs are imposed on Mexico as Trump has threatened, the national economy could experience a decline below 1% by the end of this year. Ultimately, it is estimated that the growth rate of the Mexican economy could be reduced from 1.4% to 1.1% of the Gross Domestic Product by 2025.
Regarding remittances sent to Mexico, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has reported significant amounts in recent years, being 63 billion 319 million dollars in 2023 and 59 billion 518 million dollars during January-November 2024. These remittances are primarily used for expenses related to food, health, basic services, education, clothing, footwear, and home maintenance, covering various needs of the recipient families.
