The economy of Mexico is heading towards its worst growth rate in the last four years, not seen since the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, when GDP plummeted by 8.5%, according to Inegi. Through the Early Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), the federal agency reported that the national economy would have grown only 1.3% by the end of 2024, which represents a marked slowdown compared to the 3.2% reached in 2023 and the 3.1% reported at the end of 2022.
If this 1.3% growth in 2024 projected by the IOAE is confirmed, it would be the lowest advance at the end of a six-year term in the last 30 years. By way of comparison, at the end of Carlos Salinas's term in 1994, the national economy grew by 4.3%; in 2000 with Ernesto Zedillo it was 5.1%; in 2006 with Vicente Fox it reached 4.8%; in 2012 with Felipe Calderón it was 3.6%; and in 2018 with Enrique Peña Nieto it closed at 2%.
The Early Indicator of Economic Activity projects an early estimate of the evolution of economic activity in Mexico, covering industrial activities, services, trade, and tourism. Furthermore, it provides an anticipation, with a margin of five weeks, of the measurement of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), which helps measure the development of the real sector of the economy in the short term. The IOAE estimates are subject to revision and may be adjusted when Inegi publishes the official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which assesses the performance of all sectors driving the country's economy.
The next official GDP report is scheduled for January 30, at which point the preliminary data provided by the IOAE will be confirmed or modified.
