International trade and economics specialists have expressed their views on the imposition of tariffs by the United States on Mexico, emphasizing that they are likely to be seen in the short term, but not sustained. César Hernández, founding partner of Publius Consultores, has pointed out that illegal migration and fentanyl are not regulated under the USMCA, however, the Trump administration is pushing to address these issues using tools like tariffs.
Hernández anticipates a constant negotiation until July 2026, covering matters such as energy, genetically modified corn, automotive regional content, Chinese investments, and the rapid response labor mechanism. It is expected that Mexico and Canada will face pressure to move automobile and auto parts production to the United States.
Regarding the review of the USMCA, Samantha Atayde, partner of the international trade and arbitration practice at RRH Consultores, considers it positive that the Trump administration is following a regulated process. Atayde highlights that issues like illegal migration and fentanyl will be evaluated, which could mix agendas and exert pressure on Mexico.
On the other hand, Luis Gonzali, vice president and co-director of investments at Franklin Templeton, believes that tariff threats are negotiation tactics to gain trade advantages. Also, the United States is expected to impose tariffs on the European Union and China.
President Donald Trump has ordered a review of US trade policy and an assessment of the impact of the USMCA on different economic sectors. The review of the agreement in 2026 is anticipated to prioritize automotive rules of origin for electric and gasoline vehicles.
