According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg among economists, a decline of 0.2 percent in Mexico's GDP was forecasted between October and December 2024. However, when comparing the fourth quarter of 2024 with the same period in 2023, the Mexican economy grew by 0.6 percent year-on-year.
Contrary to these projections, the Timely Estimate from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) showed that the Mexican economy contracted by 0.6 percent in the last quarter of 2024. This was the first quarterly decline in Mexico's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since the third quarter of 2021.
The 0.6 percent contraction turned out to be greater than estimated by specialists, although the service and trade sectors recorded a 2.2 percent advance. The 0.6 percent year-on-year growth is the lowest since the first quarter of 2021.
The weaker-than-expected economic performance is attributed to several factors. Ramón de la Rosa, deputy economic director at Actinver, pointed out that volatility in agricultural activities, influenced by climatic factors such as Hurricane John which caused a shortage of papaya in Oaxaca, was one of the reasons. Additionally, the completion of public infrastructure projects has led to lower spending.
Inegi's estimate indicates that the Mexican economy grew by 1.3 percent throughout 2024, a figure below the expectations of analysts surveyed by Citi, who anticipated a 1.5 percent advance. The decrease in economic dynamism was reflected in lower activity within primary sectors, which recorded a 4.6 percent annual decline, while manufacturing and construction contracted by 1.7 percent.
