The Undersecretary of Finance, Edgar Amador, explained that the 0.6 percent drop in GDP during the fourth quarter of 2024 was due 50 percent to agricultural drought and external shocks. He also mentioned that the Mexican economy was impacted by strikes and hurricanes in the United States that negatively affected key sectors such as automotive, electrical equipment, and aerospace.
During 2024, the Mexican economy grew by 1.5 percent, and it is expected that this dynamism, along with greater clarity on public policies of the new administration in the United States, will have a positive impact in the coming months. These data were presented in the Reports on the Economic Situation, Public Finances, and Public Debt for the fourth quarter of 2024.
Regarding fiscal results, the Undersecretary of Finance mentioned that the budget deficit was lower than planned, at 4.9 percent of GDP, and the Financial Requirements of the Public Sector reached 5.7 percent of GDP, 0.2 percentage points below the estimate. Public debt remained stable and sustainable at 17 trillion 426 billion pesos, equivalent to 51.4 percent of GDP in 2024.
Amador mentioned that they project GDP growth for Mexico between 2 and 2.3 percent, despite the risks coming from the United States. He indicated that leading indicators show an expansion in manufacturing, reflecting an increase in business confidence.
Economists from Banorte highlighted that the drop in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 was the first since the third quarter of 2021, with significant declines in agriculture and industry, not compensated by advances in services. They project growth of only 1 percent in 2025.
It was explained that the drop observed in the fourth quarter was largely due to the poor performance of primary activities, which decreased by 8.9 percent quarterly.
Regarding tax collection, it was stated that targets would be achieved even if the Mexican economy faces difficulties. It was explained that there is additional revenue potential from oil prices and other factors that will support this goal in the year 2025.
As for investment, it grew by 4.7 percent annually, highlighting the increase in private investment. On the other hand, the labor market showed positive numbers, with an increase in employment levels and the lowest unemployment rate since 2005. In terms of prices, inflation closed at 4.2 percent annually, impacted by factors such as hurricanes and strikes in the United States, although better performance in manufacturing was observed in November.
