The chief economist of BX+, Alejandro Saldaña, believes that the government of Claudia Sheinbaum has demonstrated a more orthodox approach, which has generated positive messages and an opening of Mexico to the world. Saldaña points out that this stance alleviates some pressure on the country, highlighting that Mexico has solid structural axes despite geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
Amidst uncertainty, actions such as negotiation with Trump and the willingness to respond to potential trade threats are emphasized, as well as the Mexico Plan to strengthen domestic production and the nomination of Gabriel Cuadra at Banxico, measures that could positively influence financial markets in the medium term.
Despite these encouraging messages, forecasts for the Mexican economy, including a reduction of the fiscal deficit to 3.9%, remain pessimistic among specialists. Forecasts from institutions like Banxico and Citi point to an economic growth of 1%, half of what Hacienda estimates.
Analysts from Banamex and Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (Bx+) agree that Sheinbaum's actions in response to Trump’s threats have earned her social support and a good perception in the market, but they doubt her ability to reverse the economic deterioration and meet fiscal goals.
Current challenges include the deceleration in job generation reported by the IMSS, high interest rates impacting investment and consumption, the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to unpredictable climatic conditions, and the lack of investment, both domestic and foreign, due to local uncertainty and trade relations with the United States.
In this context, despite the government's efforts, experts suggest that Sheinbaum's positive messages are not enough to counteract economic pressures and achieve fiscal targets. Saldaña highlights that the economy shows a clear trend toward deceleration, reflected in indicators such as employment.
