The first years of each presidential term usually bring more problems than the rest of the administration. Even if the Mexican economy only grows by 1 percent in 2025, it would be the best start in the last six presidential terms. Let's review the first years since Ernesto Zedillo and see what conclusions we can draw.
The fiscal adjustment of Enrique Peña Nieto's first year cooled the economy. The growth in 2013 was only 0.9 percent, well below the 3.6 percent with which the previous term ended. Although GDP never fully took off, it at least remained in positive figures for six years.
The return of the PRI in 2012 brought the "Pact for Mexico" and structural reforms. However, Peña Nieto's first year marked a slowdown in 2013. On the other hand, the overall term balance of his administration was an accumulated growth of 5 percent, with an average annual rate of 0.8 percent, the lowest figure during this period.
Felipe Calderón's start in 2007 was the positive exception in recent years of presidential terms. His first year was the best of the previous five in terms of economic growth. In contrast, Vicente Fox's beginning in 2000 brought a prolonged recession after years of post-NAFTA vigor.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador's arrival in 2018 started low and ended with a barely over 1 percent growth in 2019, where the economy contracted by -0.4%. Let’s compare this with the best record of a first year, Calderón's in 2007. Can the curse of poor starts of presidential terms be broken?
A bad first year does not always determine the course of a government. Ernesto Zedillo, for example, started with the worst collapse and ended with the highest growth despite uncertainty from the presidential transition and global deceleration. From the second quarter of 2001, there were five consecutive quarters of contraction under Fox, with a GDP drop of -0.5 percent.
The crisis of 1995 marked an economic collapse in Zedillo's first year. The banking system's failure, the bailout via Fobaproa, the peso devaluation, and the contraction of the economy were significant events during that period. Despite the challenges, not all first years have been chaotic, as demonstrated by Luis Echeverría's stability.
Changes in economic policies and international circumstances influence the performance of the first years of each presidential term. Uncertainty regarding the transition and various external factors can make the difference between a good start and a problematic one, as recorded in recent years.
