The world's most indebted oil company is accumulating new liabilities daily, while its production is collapsing, putting it in a delicate position and suggesting a possible collapse. Despite multimillion-dollar bailouts from the 4T government, particularly from López Obrador, who injected Pemex with 1.2 trillion pesos, this has not significantly contributed to reducing public and private debt levels or resolving labor liabilities and legal disputes.
On February 4, 2020, López Obrador claimed to have saved Pemex from failure and bankruptcy. Throughout his term, both he and Octavio Romero Oropeza assured that they would achieve energy sovereignty by stopping gasoline imports; however, reality shows a different picture with production decreasing to critical levels of 1.1 million barrels per day, compared to 1.8 million barrels per day in December 2023.
President Sheinbaum faces the challenge of the preeminence of clean energies and the decline in Pemex's production. The precarious financial state of the oil company limits actions for a greater bailout, especially given the stance to defend the sovereignty of Petróleos Mexicanos, which restricts private investment.
The public sector budget deficit has increased significantly during AMLO's administration, rising from 640 billion 412 million pesos to 1.663 trillion pesos by the end of his term. This deficit has impacted public finances and hinders the implementation of key programs.
Pemex, on the brink of bankruptcy due to Octavio Romero's management and its debt levels, jeopardizes its credit rating and affects the Mexican government. Despite massive debt, the government's nationalist approach limits both foreign and national investment in the oil company.
The government will allocate 20% of its debt to Pemex by 2025, which equates to 675 million pesos daily. However, this debt is mainly allocated for current expenditures and maintaining minimum production without reversing the credit situation. The lack of a convincing business plan and the decline in production increase investor distrust.
Pemex's liabilities with suppliers continue to rise, along with the interest generated by the debt, which in 2024 surpassed 36 billion pesos. The difficult financial situation of Pemex represents a challenge for President Sheinbaum amid a possible economic recession and the threat of tariffs from the U.S.
In this scenario, Pemex navigates toward an uncertain future, with serious implications not only for the company but also for the Mexican economy as a whole.
