The rating agency Fitch projects that the Mexican economy will remain stagnant this year due to the increase in tariffs on Mexican imports by its trading partner. Growth is expected to only reach 0.8% in 2026, representing a reduction of 1.1 and 0.8 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 respectively.
According to Fitch, Mexico's economic situation faces uncertainty due to the tariffs imposed by the United States. The uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these tariffs has negatively impacted the Mexican economy, creating a scenario of technical recession for this year.
The agency mentions that the increase in uncertainty has affected capital spending and investment in the country, which is reflected in economic confidence data. The Mexican economy is particularly vulnerable due to its close trade relationship with the United States.
Regarding inflation, it is projected to end this year at 3.8%, influenced by the projected weakness of the Mexican peso at 21.50 per dollar due to the U.S. tariffs. Fitch expects that the Bank of Mexico will reduce the interest rate to 8.0% this year and continue lowering it to 7.5% by the end of 2026.
Fitch also warns about the impact of the global trade war initiated by the new U.S. administration, which will affect economic growth both in the United States and worldwide. The agency has revised down its growth forecasts for both the United States and the global economy, particularly impacting developed and emerging economies.
