The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, ruled out the possibility of a recession in the Mexican economy for 2025 and 2026, contradicting the forecasts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which predicts negative growth of -1.3% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026. According to Ebrard, these figures are based on the implementation of tariffs, something he considers unlikely. "That is if there is a 25% tariff, which I see as unlikely, in fact, there isn't one right now," the secretary stated during a promotional event for the brand "Made in Mexico." Ebrard also pointed out that a potential recession would be conditioned by decisions external to Mexico, especially those made by the United States and other countries. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) maintains its economic growth forecast for 2025 between 2% and 3%. The new Secretary of Finance, Edgar Amador, stated that while external challenges may moderate growth, they do not foresee a recession in their baseline scenario. Amador emphasized that the country's growth will be moderated but remains positive in the long term. Regarding the OECD projections, Ebrard indicated that they consider a scenario with a 25% tariff imposed on Mexico, something that, according to him, is not envisioned in the current situation. "That estimate that they announced is estimated if a 25% tariff is imposed on Mexico, as was announced just a few days ago," explained Ebrard Casaubón.
