The Federal Reserve of the United States is expected to maintain its current interest rate between 4.25 and 4.50 percent, a situation that could accentuate the depreciation of the Mexican peso during the week. Despite the fact that the U.S. economy experienced a decline of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, it is predicted that the Fed will remain firm in its decisions. According to a report from CI Banco, combined with inflation data in Mexico, this could position the value of the Mexican peso between 19.40 and 19.95 pesos by the end of the week.
One of the main reasons that could lead the Fed to maintain its interest rate is the impact of Donald Trump's tariff policies, which have caused negative consequences in the U.S. economy. Despite a slight contraction in GDP, more jobs than expected were created in the U.S. during the same period, surpassing expectations with 177,000 new job positions.
Despite Donald Trump's pressures on the Fed to reduce the interest rate, analysts do not anticipate changes in the upcoming meeting on May 7. With an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent and a monthly wage increase of 0.2 percent and 3.8 percent annually, inflation remained stable. The Fed's preferred consumer price index (PCE) reported a moderation of 2.3 percent year-over-year in March, with a core inflation of 2.6 percent.
The U.S. government has announced measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs, such as gradual refunds to automotive companies. On the other hand, China is considering returning to trade negotiations with the U.S., which could ease tensions in the financial markets. Although the announced economic measures and results have not been convincing enough, the Fed, under the leadership of Jerome Powell, does not seem to consider lowering the interest rate, marking a new direction for the Mexican currency after its downward trend.
