The latest expectations survey conducted by the Bank of Mexico forecasted a growth of 0.2% for the entire year of 2025, despite the Ministry of Finance estimating growth between 1.5% and 2.3% for the same period, which is above the established consensus.
One of the measures to be implemented to encourage investments is the extension of a tax incentive until the year 2030. This extension could incentivize investments by significantly reducing the taxable base of corporate income tax. According to the report presented by the Ministry of Finance to Congress, in the first quarter of the year, the collection of income tax from legal entities increased from 348 billion to 660 billion pesos, representing an 87% increase in nominal terms.
Another relevant point of the Mexico Plan is the increase in the presence of domestic products in the internal market, covering both final consumer goods and inputs. Measures such as the application of specific tariffs and the fight against illegal imports have managed to reduce imports of finished products by 60%. It is also planned to increase national provision in public procurement and other sectors, as announced by the Secretary of Finance.
However, the weakest points of the plan relate to infrastructure projects that require private sector participation, as the government lacks the necessary financial resources and economic uncertainty raises doubts about these investments. The proposal to diversify exports as a strategy against the tariffs imposed by the United States poses difficulties, given that Mexican exports depend on solid supply chains built over past decades.
The internal market presents itself as a way to cushion the possible negative impacts of tariffs, although, despite the incentives announced by the government, it is likely that economic growth will be affected this year. The Mexican business sector shows skepticism regarding the results that the Mexico Plan may bring, considering past experiences of unrealized or postponed projects.
Despite the doubts raised and the history of unmet projects in the country, there are tangible aspects of the Mexico Plan that have already begun to be executed, such as the decree allowing for accelerated depreciation of new investments in fixed assets, which could be a significant driver for the national economy.
