Financial analysts expect an overall indicator of 3.91 percent for the entire period, slightly above the 3.80 percent reported in March. The majority of participants anticipate a 50 basis point cut in the Banco de México's monetary policy rate as the next move. The median forecast for the rate at the end of 2025 remains at 7.75 percent, with estimates ranging between 6.25 and 8.25 percent. For 2026, it is projected to remain at 1.5 percent.
Expectations also show that the Mexican peso will be at 20.80 pesos per dollar, in contrast to the 20.93 pesos previously projected for the greenback. By the end of 2026, it is expected to reach 21.23 pesos per dollar, which represents a three cent reduction from previous estimates.
In terms of inflation, stability is expected by the end of 2025 and 2026, with a median expectation of 7.0 percent for the latter year mentioned. Regarding the Mexican economy, despite the slight growth recorded in the first quarter, analysts maintain their forecast at a modest 0.1 percent growth for the end of 2025 in the Citi Survey of Mexico Expectations.
In relation to inflation, it is anticipated to end the current year at 3.80 percent for the overall indicator and 3.81 percent for the core component. Economic forecasts for the exchange rate towards the end of 2025 have been revised downwards by analysts, with variations ranging from -0.8 percent to 0.7 percent, depending on the financial institution.
