The global economy has experienced a flurry of changing information that has impacted different sectors. During the first quarter of 2025, the demand for imports increased significantly, as did that for automobiles, transportation equipment, machinery, industrial equipment, and gold. This precious metal reached $3,400 per ounce as a possible safe haven in response to the weakness of the U.S. dollar.
Despite the volatility caused by decisions from the President of the United States, markets seem to be entering a period of relative temporary calm. Mexico, like other countries, has been affected by this situation. However, it managed to avoid a technical recession driven by exports, mainly in the agricultural sector, while maintaining a stable level of trade and services activity despite the slowdown in employment.
Economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 was distorted due to the potential imposition of tariffs on imports by the main trading partners of the United States. This negatively affected the U.S. GDP, with a high negative contribution from imports to the annualized quarterly growth.
While a calm period is currently being experienced, uncertainty persists. President Donald Trump's decisions may generate abrupt movements in the markets, such as a sudden appreciation of the exchange rate. Manufacturing activity has been key in counteracting declines in other sectors, with a notable boost in exports to the United States in light of potential tariffs.
Although tariffs have not yet been implemented broadly, there are fears regarding their application, which could significantly impact Mexico's economy. The demand for manufactured goods has increased in anticipation of possible restrictive measures. The caution of local and foreign investors has led to a pause in construction projects, awaiting a clearer scenario in terms of economic strategies.
The economic outlook remains uncertain due to the possibility of aggressive tariffs from the U.S. administration. Despite being in a period of relative calm, Mexico's and other countries' economic stability is threatened by the uncertainty arising from the trade war and unpredictable tariff-related decisions.
