However, this will not be enough to compensate for the meager public investment or the external weakness. The market moves away from Amador's projection for 2025: it sees 0.3% growth and more inflationary pressures. 'Possible tariff increases on Mexican imports from countries without trade agreements could generate additional inflationary pressures.' Despite Marcelo Ebrard's promises to end the year with the tariffs negotiation with the US closed, the OECD warns that Mexico will face two years marked by uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the USMCA. The organization assumes that in 2026 and 2027, tariffs of 25% will continue to be applied to exports that do not comply with the rules of the agreement, as well as to automobiles, auto parts, trucks, and their components. This leaves the economy with a very lean growth for 2025, whose projection was lowered from 0.8% to 0.7% since the last report in September, and with little momentum to recover: 1.2% and 1.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Based on its scenario, the reference rate could be located at 6.25% towards the end of 2026 and inflation at 3.8% for 2025, 3.3% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. In contrast, a reduction in uncertainty—for example, through a rapid and successful renegotiation of the trade agreement with the United States and Canada—could boost investment and exports more than expected,' the organization summarizes. With this outlook, the OECD warns that the central bank should not accelerate the cuts. 'New reductions must be data-dependent and advance only when there is clear evidence that inflation is heading back to the 3% target.' The recovery will come hand in hand with private consumption, supported by low unemployment and lower inflation; and a slight recovery in private investment due to lower interest rates. Additionally, it projects a 50% tariff from the United States on imports of steel, aluminum, and semi-fabricated copper products. According to the OECD, the projected tariffs and the renegotiation of the USMCA generate so much uncertainty that they limit exports and slow down investment decisions.
