Mexico's consumer sector will remain resilient into 2026, albeit with a moderate growth pace. Barclays forecasts that real household spending will grow by around 1% following a nearly stagnant 2025.
In this environment, multi-packs, price adjustments, and more accessible packaging are gaining prominence, as are private labels. Households will prioritize preserving their basic basket, favoring food, non-alcoholic beverages, hygiene, and pharmacy, which could sustain a low single-digit real growth.
Conversely, imported electronics, premium beverages, branded apparel, home improvements, and leisure or travel are most exposed to selective tariffs, a firmer exchange rate, and households' reduced ability to absorb price increases when disposable income falls below inflation. Non-essential categories will face a weaker outlook.
Among companies with upgraded ratings, Alsea, a restaurant operator, stands out, boosted by increased traffic associated with the World Cup, the strength of brands like Starbucks and Domino's, and better operational execution. Becle, a beverage company, also improves, supported by easier comparables, lower tariff risk in the US, and normalization of the spirits market.
Bimbo, focused on baking and staple foods, was upgraded due to lower wheat costs, improved US operations, and a still-low valuation. The report also notes that real GDP will increasingly be driven by consumption rather than investment by 2026, reflecting stable employment, real wage gains, and potential improvements in remittances, while capital formation remains limited by policy uncertainty and low public investment.
