Experts warn that Mexico could lose market share due to its government's oil and gas policies. They believe Mexico is moving too slowly towards opening its oil business to private investment, while Venezuela is rapidly changing its policy. Both countries are natural competitors, as they both produce heavy oil processed in US refineries. Specialists note that Venezuela has already become a risk for Mexico in the energy sector. While the Venezuelan government appears to be aligning its goals with the Trump administration and opening up for business, Mexico is implementing reforms that return state control over Pemex and CFE, prioritizing the state over private investors and focusing less on exports. Analysts see this as a risk factor for the Mexican economy, adding to other threats such as the lack of progress in the USMCA review and legal electoral reforms. This also affects the credibility of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). According to experts, Mexico is exporting less and less, while Venezuela is taking steps to increase its exports. Both countries face challenges in increasing production: Venezuela produces 1 million barrels per day, while Mexico produces 1.3 million. Experts also expressed doubts about achieving the 3% inflation target by the end of the year and the success of the Plan Mexico.
