The rise in food prices in Mexico continues to be the main challenge for the country's central bank. In 2025, prices at delis, fondas, torterías, and taquerías rose by over 8%, which is more than double the general inflation rate. Economists emphasize that prices for these food services are not decreasing. According to Paulina Anciola of Banamex, this sector reflects improvements in the labor market. This is the third consecutive year that rising food prices have become the main challenge for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in its goal of bringing inflation down to 3%. The central bank has postponed achieving this target by a year. Banxico has identified five main risks in its fight against inflation: the persistence of underlying inflation, cost pressures, the depreciation of the Mexican peso, geopolitical conflicts, and climate change. Food prices, particularly for processed and agricultural goods, have remained above 4% since 2024. This increase is directly reflected in the prices at food establishments. Another pressure factor is the increase in the IEPS tax on sugary drinks and cigarettes, which also pushes inflation up. Furthermore, the World Cup is expected to impact commerce, as well as tourism-related sectors such as hotels and air travel. These factors will be analyzed by Victoria Rodríguez's team at their next meeting in March, where they are likely to maintain their pause in interest rate cuts. Analysts provide a more pessimistic forecast, expecting inflation to return to 4%. The main challenge for Banxico is that food prices will remain high this year. This is directly reflected in the underlying component of inflation, which determines medium and long-term trends. In 2023, the central bank managed to curb the inflationary wave caused by the pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine. However, the food sector, especially processed and agricultural products, became the main anchor for inflation, which was stuck at the 4% level until 2025, standing at 3.69%. For example, in the first half of January, the price of tomatoes rose by 3.45%, and limes by 15.21%. While analysts believe this increase is temporary, other products, such as delis and restaurants, have shown persistent price growth over recent years. The price of sugary drinks, which rose by 4% in the first half of January (after cigarettes, which rose by 12.22%), is also linked to the IEPS tax hike. "It is positive for the consumer and the worker, but it also represents a higher cost in labor for food services that is accumulating with other pressures," experts noted. These other pressures are related to climate conditions, such as droughts that have affected agricultural production in previous years.
