Mexican authorities have revised their economic growth forecast upwards. Growth is now projected at 0.8%, up from the initial estimate of 0.7%. This revision follows better-than-expected results in December, where economic activity showed a modest boost of 0.4% monthly and 2.4% annually. All three main sectors posted positive results, with the agricultural sector standing out, growing by 6.5% monthly and 11.7% annually. The industry saw a slight increase of 0.2% compared to November and 1.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the tertiary or service sector had a positive variation of 0.2% in December compared to the previous month and advanced 2.2% annually. Consequently, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.9% in the last quarter of the year, showing a slight activation compared to the third quarter's data, when the economic increase was only 0.1%. Monex analysts noted that the 0.9% q/q growth reflects a firmer improvement in secondary and tertiary activities, suggesting a widespread recovery and signaling greater stability in the short term. However, despite this positive data revision, which was far from the recession initially anticipated at the start of the year, it should be noted that this represents the lowest economic growth since 2020. Analysts at Monex pointed out that the results show the economy remains in a limited expansion environment. For 2026, the economic environment will continue to be conditioned by external and internal factors, including trade uncertainty (tariff pressures and USMCA review) and an investment level that still shows signs of caution. According to the latest consensus from Citi, specialists estimate a growth of 1.4% for the end of the year.
