Mexico has a scheme in which the IEPS is lowered so that the price of gasoline does not rise, the president said. That is, it will imply reducing the IEPS charge so that gasoline does not go up in price and stays close to 24 pesos in the case of Magna. It is a double-edged move, as it implies entering fewer resources into the treasury for this item in a year that, although it is expected to have better growth than 2025, will still be weak. Mexico has a scheme where it lowers the IEPS and does not let the price of gasoline rise and inflation is not affected. We will be evaluating this issue, but so far, there is no problem for our country, the president stated. On the other hand, the president highlighted that the Mexican currency remains unchanged without significant changes despite world tension. Iran's counterattack in the Strait of Hormuz following the attack by the United States and Israel caused a rebound in crude oil prices internationally by more than 8%, representing a new inflationary risk that the government of Claudia Sheinbaum seeks to contain. In the midst of the war involving the United States and Israel, the energy market's focus is on the strait, threatened by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Citigroup estimates that Brent will trade between $80 and $90 this week, considering that the war will extend a maximum of two weeks. Other analyses, such as that of Gonzalo Monroy, director of the GMEC consultancy, see probable increases to just over $100 per barrel, however, he also warns that it would be counterproductive for Iran itself, so he sees a limited risk. IEPS and tariffs divide Banxico on the duration of the pause in interest rate cuts. Beyond these projections, the risk persists as Iran launches threats against ships attempting to cross the strait, in response to attacks by the United States and Israel over the weekend that reached Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other high-ranking officials of the Iranian regime, which also leaves the political direction of that country in uncertainty. The conflict has once again unleashed criticism towards the UN from the Mexican government, as President Sheinbaum also assured this morning that these conflicts show that the UN stopped doing its job. According to data from Banxico, at the start of this session, the peso showed a slight depreciation of 0.66% by locating at 17.23 units per dollar. Pressures for the oil market will be determined by the time in which the strait is obstructed. It is a strategic oil passage through which about 20% of the world's supply circulates, so its closure would mean disruptions in the global supply. The immediate response was that the WTI reference started this Monday's session at $72.52 per barrel, an advance of 8.16%; while Brent reached a price of $79.21 per barrel, that is, an increase of more than 9.33% and projections that it can continue to rise in price if the closure of the strait is concrete or attacks on ships persist. This scenario puts strong inflationary pressures worldwide, so the Mexican government is following its development very closely, in a context where Banxico faces several inflationary shocks that complicate its inflation target of 3%. Inflation rebounds to 3.9% in the first half of February and challenges Banxico's next move. This morning, during her morning conference, President Claudia Sheinbaum affirmed that the issue will be analyzed in a meeting this Monday with the Secretary of the Treasury and Public Credit, Edgar Amador. She recalled that the government has a mechanism to adjust the fiscal stimulus and prevent these international price hikes from impacting gasoline prices in the country. "It has weakened and it cannot be so, the role of multilateral policy must be recovered," she said. "Countries with greater military force are imposed."
