Private domestic spending advanced 4.00% annually, consolidating the strength of the domestic market. Although the monthly economic activity in January showed a slight contraction of -0.40%, the structural data compensate for this setback and reinforce the perception of economic resilience, which helps maintain exchange rate stability. Geopolitics and US data. The Mexican peso started the session with a quote close to 17.77 pesos per dollar, showing stability compared to the previous close. Readings above expected could boost the dollar, while weak figures would favor the peso. Mixed signals on the domestic front. Domestically, the landscape combines positive elements with potential risks. Although it seeks to mobilize up to 5.6 trillion pesos in infrastructure through mixed schemes, there are concerns about possible implications for public finances. On pensions, it has been clarified that adjustments focus on limiting high benefits for former officials, while most workers will maintain improvements and support, reducing the risk of negative social impact. Outlook for the exchange rate. For the rest of the day, the exchange rate is expected to oscillate between 17.68 and 17.90 pesos per dollar. Any deterioration in the situation could strengthen the dollar as a safe-haven asset and put pressure on the exchange rate. Additionally, investors are focusing on US manufacturing PMI and services data. A scenario of strong data in the US could lead the quotation to levels near 17.85. However, the strength of domestic demand and efforts to strengthen national energy production act as containment factors. The evolution of the conflict in the Middle East will be decisive. A breakdown in the truce could trigger episodes of risk aversion and pressure the peso towards levels above 18.00 pesos per dollar. This behavior occurs in a context where internal fundamentals have begun to offer stronger signals than anticipated, which provides support for the currency against external factors. Domestic demand surprises to the upside. One of the most relevant elements of the day is the performance of aggregate demand, which during the fourth quarter of the year showed an annual expansion of 4.50%, well above the 1.10% recorded previously. On the one hand, there is optimism around the preliminary talks for USMCA 2026, which reduces fears of significant trade tensions. On the other, the proposal of the Investment Promotion Law has generated debate. International markets react cautiously after a temporary easing of tensions between the United States and Iran. On a quarterly basis, the indicator also stood out by placing at 2.40%, reflecting a significant acceleration. This dynamic suggests a firmer recovery in consumption and investment, key factors for economic growth. Forecasts point to levels near 51.0 and 51.7, respectively. The decision to postpone military action for five days opens a window for dialogue; however, Tehran's rigid posture maintains uncertainty. This scenario creates a delicate balance between appetite and aversion to risk.
