The aviation industry will transport 5.2 billion passengers with record occupancy factors in 2026, but its margins remain thin. In such a business, a shock in fuel prices forces a quick reaction: either the blow is absorbed with lower profits, or part of the cost is passed on to fares. A combination of both usually occurs. In Mexico, the issue is important because aviation is not a marginal luxury. It is, along with payroll, the heaviest component of the operational structure. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that in 2026, fuel will represent 25.7 percent of global operational costs, equivalent to 252 billion dollars. In Mexico, the airlines themselves have documented that jet fuel absorbs between 30 and 35 percent of their total operating expenses. For every three pesos an airline spends in this country, one goes to fuel. That is why when jet fuel prices rise, the effect on fares does not take long to appear. The problem is not just that fuel is expensive. It was not the item with the highest absolute increase, but it was one of the most revealing because it quickly expresses what happens when a key input suddenly becomes more expensive. That input is jet fuel. In the aviation industry, fuel is not just another cost. Jet fuel prices do not mechanically follow crude oil; their dynamics are determined by refining capacity, logistical bottlenecks, and processing margins. And there are other factors that seem circumstantial until you see what they reveal about the economy. The increase in air transport, reported yesterday by INEGI, belongs to the second category. In the first half of March, the INPC rose by 0.62 percent compared to the previous half-month and brought annual inflation to 4.63 percent. Among generic products and services with the greatest impact, air transport stood out, whose price increased by 21.86 percent in just fifteen days, with an incidence of 0.046 percentage points on general inflation. But it is also a warning signal about the sensitivity of certain services to rising energy costs. Just as at other times gasoline hit land transport, today jet fuel will begin to affect the air transport market. The bigger problem is that it changes abruptly. IATA warned a few days ago that a sudden fuel adjustment can be more damaging to airlines than a high but stable price. The reason is simple: tickets are sold in advance, routes are planned with months of margin, and costs can vary in a matter of days. When that happens, the adjustment ends up being passed on to the passenger. International numbers quantify the pressure. IATA forecasts for 2026 a spread of 26 dollars per barrel against Brent. This means that even if crude does not rise further, jet fuel can remain under pressure. The jump of 21.86 percent in flight prices in March, in just a fortnight, suggests that there is real cost pressure, although the data also mixes seasonality and sector-specific tariff strategies. This combination matters because it occurs in a narrow profitability environment. IATA calculates that airlines will obtain a net profit of only 3.9 percent of their revenues in 2026. The IATA monitor reported last week a global average jet fuel price of 197 dollars per barrel, 12.6 percent more than a week before. And although the central forecast places the annual average at 88 dollars per barrel, that figure assumes that current volatility will ease. In an international context exposed to geopolitical tensions, logistical disruptions, and volatility in refined products, this rise will surely not be an isolated episode. Because sometimes inflation does not enter through the door of food or gasoline. Sometimes it takes off from the runway. According to figures released by Datatur, between January and November 2025, 57.9 million passengers were mobilized on domestic flights and 52.9 million on international ones: more than 110 million in just eleven months. A persistent price increase affects not only vacationers; it impacts tourism, business travel, regional connectivity, and consumption decisions by households and companies. What INEGI's data showed yesterday is, apparently, just the fortnight's figure. For now, the opposite is happening. That tension has its own logic in Mexico. There are price increases that explain themselves.
