The continuity of the USMCA will be great news for Mexico. In a world of increasing trade protectionism where the United States is imposing tariffs on almost every country, being able to export a high percentage of goods to our northern neighbor without tariffs will be a great advantage. Even better would be to reverse the energy reform that guarantees the CFE a 54% market share, a provision that, in addition to being bad economic policy, violates the USMCA. If the homework is done, Mexico can achieve higher economic growth rates and, with that, continue to reduce poverty. Last year, in this context of high protectionism, 82% of Mexican exports to the United States faced no tariffs whatsoever. In this sense, I see two reasons to be optimistic about the future of the agreement. The first is that the United States is giving the USMCA a treatment it has not given to any other trade agreement. To Norma and Lalo with great affection. This year, the review process of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will take place, an event of the utmost importance for the country's economic future. Mexico will be seen as the most attractive place on the planet to produce and export to the world's largest market. I believe this opportunity could be even greater than the one brought by the original treaty, NAFTA. Last year, while all countries faced tariffs to export to the U.S. market, Mexico and Canada could—with the exception of goods subject to Section 232 duties, such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles—export tariff-free to their trading partner, as long as they did so through the USMCA channel. Now, China is immersed in a trade conflict with our northern neighbor that has meant losing market share to Mexico, which in 2023 became the top exporter to the United States. But, in any case, even if this is not achieved, this realignment is positive: it reduces the country's concentration in automobiles (which represents a structural risk to the economy) and allows it to position itself to ride the wave of investment in artificial intelligence. To take full advantage of this opportunity, Mexico must invest in infrastructure, especially energy. In this sense, our country is now in a better position than it was after NAFTA came into force. Furthermore, Mexico can benefit from the investment boom in artificial intelligence that is taking place in the United States: it can produce servers, build data centers, and provide testing and packaging services for the semiconductor industry. This is already happening: last year, Mexican automotive exports to the U.S. fell 7%, while exports of electronic and computer equipment grew 47%. In part, this realignment is because the automotive sector faced 25% sectoral tariffs (not counting U.S. content), so a goal of the Mexican government in the review process must be the elimination of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum. If the United States were considering breaking the agreement, it would not give it such unique treatment. The second reason is that in the public consultations, which are part of the review process, it became evident that the U.S. private sector is overwhelmingly in favor of the USMCA moving forward. The review will not be easy, and although it will undoubtedly have modifications, I believe the USMCA will continue because it is in the interest of the United States, as Mexico helps it be more competitive thanks to the complex value chains both countries have developed. If an equilibrium is reached, as it is now, where Mexico and Canada are the only countries in the world that can export a wide range of goods tariff-free to the United States, our country will be in a unique position to attract investment, both foreign and domestic. This is because, shortly after it was signed, China joined the World Trade Organization and became, in 2003, the top exporter to the United States. A few weeks ago, following the U.S. Supreme Court's declaration on the illegality of tariffs derived from the IEEPA, Trump responded by imposing 10% tariffs on practically everyone, but once again exempted the goods that come in through the North American treaty. In this sense, the announcement of mixed infrastructure projects is good news. In the face of a lack of fiscal space, this requires private investment. Most likely, the treaty will remain in force, although I don't think it will be extended for 16 years, as that would mean a loss of leverage for President Trump.
