In the first two months of this year, Mexico once again set a historical record in its exports. And that may cause some in the United States to raise an eyebrow. In February, total merchandise exports reached 56 billion 851 million dollars, with an annual growth of 15.8 percent. Non-oil exports advanced 17.5 percent, and those directed to the United States grew 15.9 percent. And that could be the most delicate angle of the upcoming negotiation. The data from INEGI help understand why that reading would be erroneous. In February, Mexico's total imports grew 20.8 percent annually, reaching 57 billion 314 million dollars. And when it buys more intermediate goods, a relevant fraction of that demand ends up supporting employment in plants in Texas, Michigan, or Ohio. But Mexico does not only buy inputs: it is also the main destination for U.S. exports of consumer and capital goods. In the automotive sector—where the cross-content among the three countries can exceed 70 percent of the final vehicle value—it is simply impossible to separate Mexico's export success from U.S. industrial employment. That is why what the USTR stated on March 18 is significant: to focus technical conversations with Mexico on increasing manufacturing production in both countries and limiting inputs of foreign origin in North American value chains. The signal is clear: Washington wants more regional content and stricter rules of origin. In January 2026, Mexico was the main commercial partner in goods for the United States, with a total exchange of 74.1 billion dollars, above Canada and China. The risk: that export success is interpreted as a threat and the United States demands more at the table with additional requirements on traceability and verification mechanisms. Mexico's export success can be dangerous only if it is miscalculated. Affecting that relationship with punitive tariffs would not only harm Mexico: it would strip the U.S. export industry of its closest, most accessible, and most logistically profitable market. Bilateral evidence confirms this. In the accumulated January and February, total exports amounted to 104 billion 859 million dollars, 12.2 percent more than in the same period of 2025. In a more hostile international environment with the USMCA review already underway, the Mexican export machinery continues to respond with vigor and adaptability. But precisely there a paradox appears. The question is not if there will be pressures in the USMCA review, there will be, and they will be tough. The question is whether Mexico will arrive with sufficient arguments to turn its export strength into the centerpiece of a shared prosperity project. The more successful Mexico is in the U.S. market, the greater the political temptation in Washington to see that success as a problem to be corrected. It would not be the first time that a productive integration reality is read, on the other side of the border, as mere industrial displacement. In 2025, Mexico imported from the United States more than any other country in the world, even displacing Canada. Imports of intermediate goods rose 27.2 percent, to 46 billion 242 million, and represented 79.9 percent of the total imported in the bimester. The export boom does not occur in a vacuum: it is accompanied by an even more accelerated expansion of external purchases of inputs, parts, and components that feed the export machinery itself. This has a direct implication: the surplus that Mexico registers with the United States is largely the result of deeply intertwined value chains. Studies by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimate that around 40 percent of the content of Mexican exports comes from inputs manufactured in U.S. territory, well above what China can offer. When Mexico exports more, it also buys more. The advantage: Mexico can present itself as an essential part of the North American solution against Asia. Beware of successes. The numbers are there. The challenge is knowing how to use them. This means that farmers in Iowa, machinery manufacturers in Illinois, and chemical product exporters in Louisiana have in Mexico their largest external customer.
