Mexico's Ministry of Finance has presented the 'Pre-Criteria for the 2027 Economic Policy' to the Congress of the Union. The Government of Mexico reaffirms its commitment to fiscal responsibility. The Ministry of Finance sent the General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria for 2027 to Congress, in which it projects a slight rebound in GDP growth for the next year to an average of 2.4%, slightly above the 2.3% projected for this year. It calculates that GDP will advance in a range of 1.9 to 2.9% in 2027, from a projected advance for 2026 of between 1.8 and 2.8%. However, it recognizes that the national economy will face a relevant international environment next year. 'Sources of volatility persist associated with geopolitical conflicts, disruptions in global trade routes, and changes in the trade policy of the United States,' the document states. 'Towards 2026 and 2027, the Mexican economy will resume a more dynamic trajectory as the intensity of the shocks that affected economic performance in 2025 decreases,' it emphasized. 'In a context marked by the review process of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA),' it warned. 'In 2026 and 2027, the process of gradual normalization of the deficit will continue, which will allow preserving...' The Ministry of Finance projects that inflation for the end of next year will be at the Bank of Mexico's target of 3%, from 3.7% at which it will conclude this year. It forecasts that the peso will remain strong, with a slight depreciation of only 2 cents, so the exchange rate will conclude 2027 at 18.60 pesos per dollar, from 18.40 at the close of 2026. It estimates that the interest rate on Cetes will continue to fall, from 6.3% at the close of 2026 to 5.5% at the end of the following year. The '2027 Pre-Criteria' raised the projection for the price of oil for the end of this year to 77.3 dollars per barrel, from 54.9 dpb approved in this year's economic package; and for the next year they calculate it at 54.7 dpb. On the other hand, it foresees a slight slowdown in the growth of the United States economy to 2% in 2027, from 2.3% this year. The government anticipates a gradual rebound in private investment in Mexico, as companies adapt to the new regulatory environment and the review process of the USMCA advances. Likewise, public and mixed investment —under the axes of the 'Plan Mexico' and the 'Plan for Investment in Infrastructure for Development with Well-being', whose law is still being discussed in the Congress— will contribute significantly to closing infrastructure gaps and fostering productive capacity, it forecasts. It also projects a favorable performance of exports, in a context in which Mexico maintains a more favorable effective tariff rate than the rest of competing countries. 'Private consumption' will continue to be supported by the sustained growth of real wages, the increase in employment associated with investment, and the base provided by the 'Well-being Programs.' Likewise, it projects a favorable performance of exports, in a context in which Mexico maintains a more favorable effective tariff rate than the rest of competing countries, in a context marked by the review process of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA)'.
